The Final Countdown to Election Day: What to Know about the Local Races and Voting

Plus, City Council to hear presentation on refinery investigations, discuss four-year strategic plan; fishing pier renovation project scheduled for Thursday

We’re roughly 48 hours from Election Day, and while all eyes will be on what happens in the presidential race, there’s plenty of uncertainty and drama involving the local races before Martinez voters. Will voters approve the Martinez Unified School District’s latest bond measure after narrowly defeating a similar one two years ago? Who will prevail in the lone competitive races for City Council and the Martinez school board? And what will be the outcome of the hotly contested contest to replace Federal Glover on the Contra Costa County Board of Supervisors, a race that has seen well over $1 million spent by special interest groups in support of and against the two candidates.

Don’t expect to get answers to all these questions Tuesday night or even in the days that follow. As has been the case in recent election cycles, scores of mail-in ballots will arrive on and after Election Day (and be counted as long as they are postmarked by Tuesday), so what the results show late Tuesday/early Wednesday are not necessarily where they will end up when all the votes are counted weeks later. Remember when Lara DeLaney led the Election Night count for mayor two years ago?

The county Elections Office says that results reported on Election Night typically represent only about half the total vote that it ultimately will receive. That’s because roughly 90% to 95% of all ballots in the county are vote-by-mail, and a huge chunk of these don’t arrive early enough to be reported in the Election Night count.

My general rule of thumb is to treat any race where the margin is within 5 percentage points when the in-person and early mail-in and votes are counted to be too close to call.

I hope readers have found the election coverage provided in this newsletter over the past several weeks informative and helpful in making their decisions. This newsletter doesn’t issue endorsements per se (though I’ve shared my personal voting choice in a couple of cases as part of broader issue-oriented discussions). I believe every voter should weigh the facts and platforms (and do their best to sift through the falsehoods, nonsense and deceptions, of which there have again been plenty this election) and cast their vote based on their own values and who and what they believe will best serve the public interest (not just their personal interests). That’s how democracy works — or at least is supposed to.

That said, here are a few final election-related tidbits to share as we prepare for the big day.

• The candidates seeking the open District 2 seat on the Martinez City Council haven’t lacked for financial resources in getting their message out, as those of us who have been on the receiving end of multiple mailers can attest. According to the latest campaign finance filings, Greg Young had raised $15,463 and spent $14,412 as of Oct. 19 (disclosure: I donated $100 to Young’s campaign). A big chunk ($3,988) of Young’s contributions has come from the state Assembly campaign of Anamarie Avila Farias, who as the Democratic Party nominee is the heavy favorite to win that seat on Tuesday. Much of the rest has come from a host of small dollar contributors, as well as a $2,000 contribution from the local steamfitters union. Young’s opponent, Dylan Radke, had raised $20,624 and spent $10,352 as of Oct. 19. His biggest contributors have been the Build Jobs PAC ($5,000), Thousand Friends of Martinez ($4,900) and the the local electrical workers union ($2,500). Interestingly, Build Jobs is sponsored by the Building Industry Association and promotes pro-housing policies, according to its website, whereas Thousand Friends promotes open space priorities and has generally cast a skeptical eye on pro-housing initiatives, as I outlined in this post from a few weeks ago.

• Although he’s running unopposed for the District 3 City Council seat, incumbent Satinder Malhi also has been active in raising and spending campaign funds. As of Oct. 19, Malhi had raised $3,150 and spent $564 (all toward campaign signs). He additionally received a $2,000 contribution from the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers (IBEW) local on Oct. 31. Whatever money Malhi doesn’t spend in this election cycle can be carried over to future campaigns.

• In the county supervisors race, Shanelle Scales-Preston got some support last week from fellow Pittsburg City Council members Jelani Killings (who also ran for supervisor in the March primary) and Juan Banales in countering the narrative pushed by a law enforcement-backed political action committee that she’s soft on crime and responsible for crime issues in her city. In an open letter to the Pittsburg community, the two council members cited statistics that violent crime in the city has fallen by 10.6% since 2020 and that the property crime rate is below 2020 levels (they also say that Pittsburg’s total crime rate is below many other cities in the county, including Antioch, where her opponent is a councilman). In the letter, they decried the negative campaign run against Scales-Preston “insulting our community and painting a picture of Pittsburg as a city in crisis. Nothing could be further from the truth!” For those interested in doing their own research on crime rates and trends in Pittsburg, Antioch and elsewhere, check out this link. It’s worth noting that calculating cities’ crime rates is an inexact science that relies primarily on data collected by the FBI from individual law enforcement agencies; not every agency necessarily tallies crime reports identically, and not every crime is reported to law enforcement. Plus, historical comparisons of crime in Pittsburg may not be accurate, as the city’s police department was accused back in 2016 by a former high-ranking officer of “secretly and inappropriately” lowering its felony crime stats over two decades (I was an editor at the East Bay Times at the time and involved in producing the article on the allegations).

• Meanwhile, Scales-Preston’s opponent, Antioch Councilman Mike Barbanica, has focused in the closing days on trying to build up his credentials with liberal voters in the heavily Democratic district, putting out a recent mailer touting his pro-abortion rights stance, and one featuring his photo alongside Barack Obama, Kamala Harris and U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla under the title “I’m a Democrat because our shared values include preserving democracy.” While the attacks on Scales-Preston have focused heavily on public safety/crime issues, the ones directed at Barbanica, a retired Pittsburg police lieutenant, have zeroed in on his changing voter-registration status over the years and relatively recent move to the Democratic Party. According to records from the County Elections Department, Barbanica first registered as a Democrat in April 2021 before changing his registration later that year to No Party Preference. In 2022, he registered with the American Independent Party before switching back to the Democratic Party in May 2023. While the local Democratic Party establishment has largely lined up behind Scales-Preston, Barbanica does have the backing of one prominent local Democrat: State Sen. Steve Glazer of Orinda, who has often been an independent voice in party politics.

• Neither state legislative race involving Martinez is expected to be particularly competitive. Avila Farias, a former Martinez City Council member and current Contra Costa County Board of Education trustee, is running against Republican Sonia Ledo in the heavily Democratic district. Farias emerged as the last Democrat standing in a crowded March primary that also featured fellow Democrats Monica Wilson and Karen Mitchoff. The state Senate race features two Democrats, current Assemblyman Tim Grayson and the Marisol Rubio, a San Ramon City Council member running to his left on many issues. Grayson beat Rubio by over 20 percentage points in the primary and is expected to cruise to victory on Tuesday.

• Yazmin Llamas’ campaign for the seat currently held by Avila Farias on the county Board of Education has racked up big debts that apparently will be paid off by undisclosed donors who won’t be revealed until after the election. Llamas’ latest campaign filing shows $17,569 in expenditures but only $200 in contributions; her campaign’s outstanding debts are listed at $17,560. Llamas is supported by Avila Farias, who, as mentioned earlier, has already transferred nearly $4,000 from her Assembly campaign war chest to Young’s City Council campaign. Llamas’ opponent, Vicki Gordon, has reported $20,298 in contributions and $18,773 in expenditures; most of her financial support ($14,000) has come from her husband Scott, a lawyer, and his law practice. She also has received $2,500 from the Pittsburg Unified School District teachers union.

• For those planning to cast their ballot this week, drive-thru drop-off will be available at the Clerk-Recorder-Elections Department at 555 Escobar St. on Monday from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. and Tuesday from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Ballots can also be dropped off at any of county polling site or drop box or mailed (must be postmarked by Tuesday). For more information on the election and voting, visit www.contracostavote.gov or call 925-335-7800.

And in non-election news…

The Martinez City Council will mark the day after the election by taking up another topic that has created a fair amount of anxiety for residents over the past two years: safety concerns at PBF Energy’s Martinez refinery.

At Wednesday’s meeting, the council is scheduled to receive a presentation by Contra Costa Health on two independent investigations that were conducted into the refinery following the November 2022 spent catalyst release that showered the community with tons of toxic dust.

In the wake of that incident, an independent oversight committee was created by Contra Costa Health to investigate facets of the incident. On Wednesday, the council will hear the report analyzing the root cause of that accident as well as a separate, broader safety culture assessment of the refinery that was ordered after a number of other hazardous incidents at the refinery throughout 2023 caused community alarm. For the most part, 2024 has been absent of major incidents at the refinery.

Both investigations were led by consultant Scott Berger. He also conducted a third investigation, which was released to the public last year, assessing the ongoing risks from the spent catalyst dust based on soil samples; it found no increased threat to public health.

The root cause analysis report can be viewed by clicking here.

The safety culture report can be viewed by clicking here.

The council on Wednesday will also discuss embarking on a four-year “strategic plan” to prioritize the goals and strategies that are of “critical importance” to the city’s future. As a first step in that process, the council is being asked to approve a $91,700 contract with consultant Baker Tilly to help develop the plan.

According to a staff report prepared by Assistant City Manager Lauren Sugayan, the absence of such a strategic plan means that city government “lacks a clear vision for the city’s future and the essential tools to manage competing priorities in an environment with increasingly limited resources.”

The meeting starts at 7 p.m. at the Council Chamber. More information on how to attend in person or remotely can be found at the following link: https://granicus_production_attachments.s3.amazonaws.com/martinez/b8aad9af994dc86c28d32a77373662b20.pdf

On a brighter note…

The city will hold a kickoff event on Thursday at 12:15 p.m. for its long-awaited and much-anticipated fishing pier renovation project at the marina. The event will feature a brief overview of the project and remarks by the City Council. 

And finally…

Just in case my reference in the headline of this post to the “The Final Countdown” to Election Day has left the 1981 hard rock anthem by the band Europe pounding through your head, here’s a link to a more soothing, orchestral version of “The Final Countdown.” To everyone who has or will vote between now and 8 p.m. Tuesday, thanks for carrying out the most sacred duty of our democracy.