Primary Election Recap: Avila Farias on Glide Path to State Assembly After Bizarre Primary; Stage Set for Competitive Supervisor Race in November
In fiercely contested Assembly race that generated over $2 million in campaign spending, candidate who raised only $7k got the most votes and erased suspense for November
$2,466,603
That’s how much money was contributed in support of and against the campaigns of the three Democratic Party candidates who vied for the District 15 state Assembly seat that includes Martinez in last Tuesday’s primary election, according to data from the Secretary of State’s Office.
$7,319.88
That’s the amount of money contributed to the campaign of Republican Sonia Ledo, who so far has collected the most votes in the race and now goes on to the November general election, where she is all but certain to lose in the strongly Democratic district.
One never knows what will happen in a low-turnout, multi-candidate primary election, and such was the case in this Assembly race, which surely left many Democratic Party officials and activists scratching their heads (it was certainly not a result I saw coming, either, as I totally overlooked Ledo’s nearly invisible campaign when I predicted in last week’s post that two of the three Democratic Party candidates would advance to the general election).
In retrospect, the result shouldn’t have necessarily been so surprising, particularly in these polarized times when the vast majority of voters base their decisions simply on whether there is a D or an R accompanying a candidate’s name on the ballot.
Instead of choosing the Democratic candidate whom they most preferred (or perhaps more accurately, least disliked) to see represent them in the Assembly, it seems that the vast majority of Republican voters in the district simply decided to vote for the lone Republican candidate, despite the fact she has little, if any, real chance to win in November. With some ballots still to be counted, Ledo leads the race with 32.19% of the vote.
So, instead of bracing for a competitive general election matchup for the Assembly seat against a fellow Democratic, the top Democratic vote-getter on Tuesday, Martinez native Anamarie Avila Farias (30.23%), appears to be on a glide path to winning the November general election. Ledo, a self-employed real estate professional, ran a token campaign in the primary and is unlikely to generate any significant organized backing in a district where Republicans just aren’t competitive in head-to-head races against Democrats these days. The current holder of the seat, Tim Grayson, who is looking to move up to the state Senate (see below), won his 2022 re-election with over 67% of the vote.
Avila Farias, a former Martinez City Council member and current Contra Costa County Board of Education trustee, was not the favorite of the local Democratic Party establishment and powerful local labor unions, which lined up behind Antioch Councilwoman Monica Wilson, or influential party figures such as former Congressman George Miller, state Senator Bill Dodd and business interests such as the county’s oil refinery owners, who backed former county Supervisor Karen Mitchoff.
But Avila Farias did have the backing of the powerful California Teachers Association, statewide firefighter and law enforcement groups and, perhaps most important, the increasingly influential Latino political movement. Latino-backed political action committees spent over $200,000 in independent expenditures to boost her candidacy, not to mention contributions by Latino groups directly to her campaign, which pulled in a total of $110,293.
Wilson and Mitchoff also had their share of deep-pocketed backers, but they didn’t translate into the votes they needed to compete for the coveted top two positions in the primary and right to compete in November. Wilson, who was a distant third with 25% of the vote as of Friday, reported $338,527 in direct contributions to her campaign, and PACs spent an additional $149,502 in support of her candidacy. But that support also generated plenty of opposition, as $236,037 was spent through independent expenditures to defeat her. Much of the attack ads were funded by a PAC called “Leadership for California: East Bay Committee, sponsored by Californians for Jobs and a Strong Economy,” which seems to generate much of its funding from business and law enforcement groups.
As for Mitchoff, she collected $110,168 in direct contributions, but that was dwarfed by the roughly $1.08 million spent for and against her campaign by independent expenditure committees. She received strong support from PACs affiliated with energy-, health care- and housing-related interests and was opposed by PACs affiliated with public and private employee unions, including teachers and health care workers. She had a paltry 12.57% of the vote as of Friday.
Mitchoff, who judging by her policy positions and business-centered political support came across as clearly the most conservative of the three Democrats running, seems to have been the big loser by the decision of conservative voters in the district to back the Republican candidate who has virtually no chance to win in November.
She and Wilson also apparently lacked the strong grassroots support in their communities to overcome the special interest opposition that was thrown against them. Avila Farias wasn’t immune to attack ads herself, particularly from a coalition of charter public school advocates, insurance agents, technology, energy and health care providers, but she seemed to find a sweet spot in not being the primary target of the incoming fire while benefiting from strong outreach to, and support from, Latino voters and interest groups. As a result, she looks all but certain to head to Sacramento next year.
Anamarie Avila Farias appears headed to the state Assembly
Updated election results posted by the Contra Costa Elections Office on Friday afternoon has the following vote totals in this race:
County supervisor race
The primary election to succeed retiring Federal Glover on the Contra Costa County Board of Supervisors had a more predictable result, and shapes up to be a highly competitive race in November.
Antioch Councilman Mike Barbanica and Pittsburg Councilwoman Shanelle Scales-Preston had by far the most organized support and financial backing heading into Tuesday’s election, and it showed in the results. As of Friday’s updated vote counts, Barbanica led with 39.45% of the vote, followed by Scales-Preston with 34.85%.
Jelani Killings and Iztaccauhtli “White Eagle” Hector Gonzalez, both of whom lacked financial resources and support from organized interest groups, collected the remaining 26% of the vote.
Which of the remaining two candidates can attract Killings’ and Gonzalez’s votes in November should have the edge, but another factor to consider is that the November’s electorate is expected to be both different and larger for the presidential election. Stronger Democratic turnout, particularly among left-leaning voters, could prove decisive.
Although the supervisors race is non-partisan (there are no party affiliations listed on the ballot), Scales-Preston figures to have the stronger appeal to liberal voters, while much of Barbanica’s backing comes from law enforcement groups (he’s a former cop himself). Barbanica figures to win the votes of Republican and more conservative/moderate voters in the district, while Scales-Preston will need to run up her margins with traditional Democratic voters.
Another factor that will loom large in November is diversity. Glover, who is Black, is currently the only person of color on the five-member Board of Supervisors representing a county in which more than half of the population identifies as something other than non-Hispanic White. Barbanica is White, and Scales-Preston is Black.
According to campaign finance statements, Barbanica ended February with $24,230 in cash on hand, far ahead of Scales-Preston’s $8,596. However, both campaigns have heavy support from independent expenditure committees, which figure to play a large role in November.
I give a slight edge to Scales-Preston at this point.
Here is how the primary results looked as of Friday afternoon:
State Senate race
Due to redistricting, Martinez will no longer be represented by Bill Dodd in the state Senate. Current Assemblyman Tim Grayson is squaring off against San Ramon Councilwoman Marisol Rubio.
Grayson dominated the primary, currently holding 63% of the vote as of Friday, and figures to be the heavy favorite again in the general election, particularly with his financial war chest. But if a big wave of progressive voters comes out in November, Rubio could make the race more competitive than she did in the primary, especially if Grayson’s track record of receiving campaign contributions from Big Oil interests becomes a major issue amid the debate over climate change. I expect a tighter race in November, with the same result.
Local measures
Martinez voters came through for the Martinez Unified School District in renewing a $75-per-parcel tax that the district sorely needed amid its current budget woes. As of Friday, the measure had 74% approval, easily clearing the two-thirds majority required.
But, as the school board will hear on Monday, the tax will not come close to solving the district’s budget deficit, and more than $2 million in cuts are still anticipated next school year.
The second interim budget report that will be presented at Monday’s board meeting (starting at 6:30 p.m. at the district offices on Susana Street) shows the district with an anticipated budget deficit (revenues minus expenditures) of $1.77 million for 2023-24, with the deficit expected to grow to $2.8 million in 2024-25. As a result, MUSD will have to continue to draw from its reserves to balance its budget, though it should have no problem meeting its financial obligations for the current and subsequent two fiscal years.
Still to be resolved are contract negotiations with the district’s teachers and classified employees unions, the results of which will impact budget projections. Despite the district’s grim financial situation, the teachers union (Martinez Education Association) has continued to push for a 9.5% salary hike on top of the 19% increases granted the past two years, even as several teaching positions are slated to be eliminated next year as a result of budget cuts. The district, grappling with years of declining enrollment, is also anticipating drops in funded Average Daily Attendance at least through the 2025-26 school year, which will continue to hurt revenues. Increased expenditures resulting from new pay raises will exacerbate the budget deficit.
On the city side, Mayor Brianne Zorn addressed the passage of Measure A (which currently has over 66% yes votes) at Wednesday’s City Council meeting. It will eliminate the antiquated elected city clerk position in the city and turn it into an appointed one. Zorn called the apparent passage of the measure “great, because I know that’s something that we (on the council) were all supportive of.”
It appears likely that the city’s highly regarded assistant city clerk, Kat Galileo, will be appointed to the position by City Manager Michael Chandler.
“Kat, I recognize that you’re not quite smiling, but this will be directly impacting you and the City Clerk’s Office moving forward, so I will keep my fingers crossed that that continues,” Zorn said.
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